What could happen in local councils with a 1% representation threshold? It’s no secret that governance in the metro municipalities has been unstable since the 2021 election. Five of the eight metros have coalition governments. These coalitions have been unstable...
Our Political Risk Barometer is a real-time calculation of political risk in the eight metropolitan municipalities (‘metros’) from the latest local government election on 1 November 2021. Political risk is difficult to measure, particularly on a day-to-day basis, but...
All the events that are used to calculate the Political Risk Barometer can be found in our first three MetroMonitor reports: Report 1, Report 2, and Report 3. What is the Political Risk Barometer? The Political Risk Barometer is a real-time calculation of the...
Introduction In the absence of regular polling data, analysts look at by-election results to determine voters’ attitudes to political parties and to democracy in general. Since the November local government election (LGE) there have been 43 ward by-elections, with 12...
Introduction The dominance of one party (invariably the ANC or DA) in local councils is quickly coming to an end and coalition governments are increasing in frequency. Coalition governments and minority governments have been in place in a third of all municipalities...
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